Relationship Between Open Interest and Price Trend

Overall, open interest tends to increase when new money is poured into the market, meaning that speculators are betting more aggressively on the current market direction. Thus, an increase in total open interest is generally supportive of the current trend, and tends to point to a continuation of the trend, unless sentiment changes based on an influx of new information. Conversely, overall open interest tends to decrease when speculators are pulling money out of the market, showing a change in sentiment, especially if open interest has been rising before. In a steady uptrend or downtrend, open interest should (ideally) increase. This implies that longs are in control during an uptrend, or shorts are dominating in a downtrend. Decreasing open interest serves as a potential warning sign that the current price trend may be lacking real power, as no significant amount of money has entered the market. Therefore, as a general rule of thumb, rising open interest should point to a continuation of the current price move, whether in an uptrend or downtrend. Declining or flat open interest signals that the trend is waning and is probably near its end.